The nuclear crisis at the Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Fukushima, 250 km from Tokyo, has been getting a lot of attention in the media lately but fears expressed for dangerous levels of radiation reaching areas further than 30km from the stricken nuclear facilities are unfounded and need to be put into perspective.

First of all this map will give you some idea of the distances involved.

It shows the proximity of three major US Cities, New York City, Baltimore, and Washington DC to Three Mile Island.

Clicking on a colored line will give you approximate distances in miles and kilometers.

View The distance from Three Mile Island to Major US Cities in a larger map

I chose to use Three Mile Island as a reference point to show that in America’s worst nuclear accident to date these THREE major US cities were closer to the incident than Tokyo is to Fukushima.

Daiichi compared to Three Mile Island.

At the moment, the incident at the Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Fukushima resembles a more serious version of the 1979 nuclear accident at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant in Dauphin County, Pennsylvania near Harrisburg, United States.

It currently has the same accident rating of 5 (out of 1-7) on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) – see chart below.

International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) - Wikipedia

There are major differences of course –

According to Harold Denton, a senior official with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission at the time of the TMI accident, and the man put in charge of the situation:

- At Three Mile Island there were no injuries and only minor amounts of radiation released into the atmosphere. At Daiichi, at least two workers are missing and many other workers are risking heavy doses of radiation.

- There was only one troubled reactor at Three Mile; in Daiichi there are six.

- His teams could work close to the reactor. In Japan it may well be too dangerous to do so because of high levels of radiation.

- The power was working at Three Mile. In Japan, it was knocked out by the earthquake and tsunami.

(src: Reuters Full Article Here)

The seriousness stems from the amount of damage sustained to the reactors and their buildings from the combination of an Earthquake (the largest in Japan’s recorded history) the Tsunami that followed (the largest in Japan’s recorded history), the spate of large aftershocks that continued to hit the area (equal to news worthy quakes in and of themselves), and a series of explosions that damaged the structures from the inside.

Three Mile Island had no such calamity of course, issues at the TMI facility were caused and compounded by a number of factors, chief among them human error, confusing and ambiguous controls and design flaws within the reactor itself.

The similarities between the two events are in the danger posed to the surrounding environment and population by radiation and fallout – i.e. very little.

That is to say at this point the radiation is highly localised even if there was to be an explosion (possible but unlikely) it would not send debris more than 500 meters into the air and would hardly pose a major risk to areas outside the evacuation zone of 30km.

“What a meltdown involves is the basic reactor core melts, and as it melts, nuclear material will fall through to the floor of the container. There it will react with concrete and other materials … that is likely… remember this is the reasonable worst case, we don’t think anything worse is going to happen. In this reasonable worst case you get an explosion. You get some radioactive material going up to about 500 metres up into the air. Now, that’s really serious, but it’s serious again for the local area. It’s not serious for elsewhere even if you get a combination of that explosion it would only have nuclear material going in to the air up to about 500 metres. If you then couple that with the worst possible weather situation i.e. prevailing weather taking radioactive material in the direction of Greater Tokyo and you had maybe rainfall which would bring the radioactive material down do we have a problem? The answer is unequivocally no. Absolutely no issue. The problems are within 30 km of the reactor.”

– Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government Sir John Beddington on the situation at the Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant – March 15th.

(src: UK Embassy Japan)

In comparison TMI’s evacuation zone was around 10 Kilometres (5 Miles) and President Carter was even able to tour the control room on the fourth day of the accident.

Daiichi compared to Chernobyl.

The Fukushima incident though is in no way near the intensity of the Chernobyl incident in Ukraine (former USSR) which had a fire that sent highly radioactive particles 30 000ft into the atmosphere and was a full 7 on the INES.

It is physically impossible (i.e. the physics are different) for that kind of accident to occur at Fukushima.

1. Chernobyl’s reactor had no containment structure.

2. Chernobyl’s reactors had several design flaws that made the crisis harder to control. Most crucially, their cooling system had a “positive void coefficient,” which means that as coolant water is lost or turns into steam, the reaction speeds up and becomes more intense, creating a vicious feedback loop.

3. The carbon in Chernobyl’s reactor fueled a fire that spewed radioactive material further into the atmosphere. Fukushima’s reactors do not contain carbon, which means that the contamination from an explosion would remain more localized.

4. Unlike Chernobyl, however, a meltdown at Daiichi could end up contaminating the water table.

5. Much of the public health impact of Chernobyl was the result of the Soviet government’s attempt to cover up the crisis, rather than moving quickly to inform and protect the public.

6. Emergency workers at Chernobyl took few precautions, and may not have been fully informed about the risks they were taking.

(src: ProPublica Full Article Here.)

Only number 4 on the above list is a real major issue for areas outside the 30km evacuation zone around Daiichi and that is why they are working so hard to keep the stricken reactors and containment pools cool.

At the time of this posting the situation, as reported by the IAEA, has not deteriorated.

(src: Reuters Full Article Here)
(src: IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency Full Article Here)

At this point if you are anywhere in the world further from Daiichi than the 30km evacuation area you will probably get more radiation from eating several bananas with your breakfast while watching the US media flop about on TV.

As Japan makes incredible efforts to keep spirits up and get back to work I feel inspired to do the same so I will continue, within my limited capacity, stuck here in a hotel far from home and studio, to continue with my projects and music production.

Dragon looks up.

That said, I will still post regularly on the situation in Japan/Tokyo as well, which reminds me…

Media.

Please, please stop listening to the majority of talking heads on TV spewing more toxicity than all major nuclear events combined. They are not delivering anything healthy or useful to the issue on the ground here in Japan – they are simply contributing to the damage.

Their skewed coverage of the nuclear crisis has undermined attention to the human tragedy happening up North. Supplies are slow in arriving, it is the end of winter here in Japan and snowing up in that region. Sendai around this time of year is deadly cold well into early April and many people arrived at shelters wet and in the clothes they were wearing as they ran out the door – the focus should be here – where people actually are dying and in immediate danger for lack of medical care and adequate supplies.

Reuters Live Blog remains a good source of info.

The Nuclear Issue.

The Nuclear issue is serious – for Fukushima – it’s 250kms north of Tokyo and at the moment poses no major threat to the capital. Those living within 30km of the stricken nuclear reactors have been evacuated and people immediately outside the evacuation zone have been told to stay indoors.

View Tokyo in Relation to Earthquake Area in a larger map

Travel

You should probably not travel to Tokyo in the next few weeks but that has nothing to do with radiation.

The North’s infrastructure has been dealt a mighty, mighty blow, enough to cause serious issues for Tokyo over and above the nuclear crisis. The “evacuations” (a loaded word indeed) of foreign nationals from Tokyo are based on speculation about their ability to access resources – that means food and fuel at this point – and have been primarily motivated by this factor.

A reminder that it is late winter here and rotating power outages in some areas mean spending nights in the cold and it also makes storing non-perishable foods difficult hence the empty shelves in Tokyo the last few days.

These power shortages and rotating power cuts in some areas will most likely be fixed in Japanese time i.e. the next few weeks – if not days – and millions of Tokyoites are holding back on electricity usage to do their part in making it easier for everyone to see the situation through.

There are shortages of fuel and food but that will also be rectified in time as roads are rebuilt and power grids restored and supply chains re-linked – I have been told by friends in Tokyo that it’s already possible to get some basic food stuffs again in some parts of Tokyo, albeit in limited quantities.

Never forget that this is the land of the rising sun and it’s called that for a very good reason.

Ume Blossoms precede the burst of Cherry blossoms (Sakura) that start late March early April every year in Japan.

Early Spring Blossoms in Tokyo, Hiroo March 14th 2011

Signs of Spring arrive in Tokyo. Hiroo. March 14th 2011.

Long lines of cars waiting to fill up were almost everywhere but not a single honking horn or road side tantrum.

Cars waiting to fill up on Meiji Dori, Hiroo, March 14th 2011

At first I thought these were cars parked on the side of the street until I realized they were all quietly waiting to fill up at the gasoline station just out of picture on the right.

Cars waiting patiently for fuel. Shirokanedai, Tokyo. March 14th 2011.

This station was not busy at all, just like any other day.

This fuel station in-between Shinkuju and Shibuya was not busy at all despite being on Meji Dori, a main thoroughfare in Central Tokyo. Kitasando, Tokyo. March 14 2011.

The fuel station up the road from the line of cars in Picture 2 above was already out of fuel by 15:00, but they left a polite note.

Fuel station closed; out of gasoline. Shirokanedai, Tokyo March 14th 2011

A polite sign telling customers there is no more fuel in stock. Shirokanedai, Tokyo. march 14th 2011.

Not only fuel was hard to come by. Shelves are still empty as a result of hungry stranded workers walking home through the city after the earthquake on Friday halted all train services.

Needs on the right, luxuries on the left. Sunkus convenience store Harajuku,Tokyo. March 14th 2011

Empty shelves and apology note - next delivery maybe three days - Lawsons Takanawadai, Tokyo March 14th 2011

The major supermarket chain Tokyu was also empty of essentials like water, rice and storable foods, this time from local people stocking up in precaution. There were still some supplies like Muesli, sugar and salt but everything was going fast.

Tokyu Store, Shirokanedai, Tokyo March 14th 2011

Most of the staff I spoke to at various retailers had no idea when new stocks would arrive and one manager at the local convenience store said it would take two to three days to re-supply and that it would be at a much smaller scale.

“Central Tokyo” is generally considered to be the area inside and immediately surrounding the Yamanote train line which makes a 34.5 km loop inside Tokyo. It connects all the main transport hubs in Tokyo with one another and it’s identifying color on trains maps is Green.

View Yamanote Line in a larger map

Most people who commute into Tokyo to work live outside of the Yamanote loop. A delay on the Yamanote line can send a ripple effect of delays far beyond its circumference for commuters.

The Yamanote line runs above ground so it is an actual physical barrier to cross.

Here is a graphic representation that is easier to grasp.

The main business districts lie along the right side of the loop (East) from Shinagawa to Ueno and also along the Chuo/Sobu lines which intersect the Yamanote loop from East to West (Red and Yellow Lines). The main shopping and entertainment districts lie mostly along the left side of the loop (West) from Ebisu up to Ikebukuro but it’s a sliding scale and everything overlaps and merges at the edges.

Now we zoom out to a map of Japan.

View Tokyo in Relation to Earthquake Area in a larger map

- The Pink marker is Greater Tokyo.
- The Green Markers are where the Nuclear Reactors currently making news are located.
- The Blue Markers are the two main prefectures affected by the Earthquake and Tsunami, Miyagi and Fukushima.
- The Red Marker is Sendai City.

The Flight distance to Sendai from Tokyo is 303km.